Simulating the impact on health of internalising the cost of carbon in food prices combined with a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages

Rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) have implications for health and up to 30 % of emissions globally are thought to arise from agriculture. Synergies exist between diets low in GHGEs and health however some foods have the opposite relationship, such as sugar production being a relatively low source of GHGEs. In order to address this and to further characterise a healthy sustainable diet, we model the effect on UK non-communicable disease mortality and GHGEs of internalising the social cost of carbon into the price of food alongside a 20 % tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). Developing previously published work, we simulate four tax scenarios: (A) a GHGEs tax of £2.86/tonne of CO2 equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product on all products with emissions greater than the mean across all food groups (0.36 kgCO2e/100 g); (B) scenario A but with subsidies on foods with emissions lower than 0.36 kgCO2e/100 g such that the effect is revenue neutral; (C) scenario A but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs; (D) scenario B but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs. An almost ideal demand system is used to estimate price elasticities and a comparative risk assessment model is used to estimate changes to non-communicable disease mortality. We estimate that scenario A would lead to 300 deaths delayed or averted, 18,900 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.0 billion tax revenue; scenario B, 90 deaths delayed or averted and 17,100 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs; scenario C, 1,200 deaths delayed or averted, 18,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.4 billion revenue; and scenario D, 2,000 deaths delayed or averted and 16,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs. Deaths averted are mainly due to increased fibre and reduced fat consumption; a SSB tax reduces SSB and sugar consumption. Incorporating the social cost of carbon into the price of food has the potential to improve health, reduce GHGEs, and raise revenue. The simple addition of a tax on SSBs can mitigate negative health consequences arising from sugar being low in GHGEs. Further conflicts remain, including increased consumption of unhealthy foods such as cakes and nutrients such as salt.

Reduction in sugar-sweetened beverages is not associated with more water or diet drinks

Objective The Dutch Obesity Intervention in Teenagers (DOiT) is a school-based randomised controlled trial that was effective in decreasing the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages among adolescents. The present study examined, using mediation analysis, whether this decrease in consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages could be explained by an increase in the consumption of water or diet drinks.

Design Participants completed a questionnaire about their beverage consumption at baseline and at 8 months (immediately post-intervention), 12- and 20-month follow-ups. A series of multi-level linear regression analyses were performed to examine water and diet drink consumption as potential mediators of the intervention effect on the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages.

Setting Eighteen Dutch secondary schools.

Subjects A total of 747 adolescents (mean age: 12·7 years).

Results In addition to the DoiT intervention effect of a reduction in the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages at 8 months (−284 ml/d; 95 % CI −420, −148) and 12 months (−260 ml/d; 95 % CI −360, −160), there was also a significant reduction in diet drinks at 8 months (−52 ml/d; 95 % CI −89, −16). There was no significant difference in water consumption at any follow-up. The decrease in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption could not be explained by an increase in water or diet drink consumption at any time point.

Conclusions Interventions aimed at reducing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption may be effective without changing consumption of other beverages. Reducing sugar-sweetened beverages was, however, a main message of the DOiT intervention. It is possible that a concomitant promotion of water may have resulted in a greater increase in water intake and replacement of sugar-sweetened beverages with water.

The caffeine-calorie effect in sugar-sweetened beverages

The presence of caffeine in sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) may be an important contributor to the growing obesity epidemic. The removal of caffeine, along with co-removal of a proportion of sugars from the beverage will result in regular SSB consumers reducing their energy intake without the need for other dietary or lifestyle changes.

Caffeine as an ingredient in sugar sweetened beverages

Caffeine is the most widely used psychoactive drug in the world, with more than 80% of the US population classed as regular consumers (Garrett and Griffiths 1998). An analysis of the Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (CSFII) in the US indicates that 870/o of US population over 2 years of age consumed caffeine daily and the average intake in caffeine consumers was 193 mg per day or 1.2 mgkg-l per day (Frary er a/ 2005). SSB were the primary source of caffeine in children and adolescents under 18 years of age and provided between 50-64% of the daily caffeine intake. For adults 18-34 years, SSB provided 30% of total daily caffeine, dropping fo llo/o for adults 34 years and older (Frary et a|2005). The total daily intake of caffeine observed in the CSFII is slightly lower that than observed in the 1995 National Nutrition Survey of Australian adults who reported consuming on average 270 mg of caffeine per day. Caffeine intakes amongst children, aged2 to 14 years, were reported as 17 mg per day. It is suggested that cola flavored SSB provide around 62o/, of this intake (Desbrow et al 2004).

Is the popularity of caffeinated foods mere coincidence? Is the flavor coffee, chocolate, tea and cola soft drinks such that without caffeine they would still be widely consumed? Or is the popularity of caffeine containing foods due to the influence of caffeine in the body?

Association between sugar-sweetened beverages and both gestational weight gain and gestational diabetes

This cross-sectional study aimed at evaluating the association between sugar sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption and both excessive gestational weight gain (EGWG) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The study was conducted in the postpartum units of Memorial Hermann Hospital, Lyndon Baines Johnson General Hospital, the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston General Hospital, and the University of Texas at Brownsville Hospital. Between June 2009 and September 2010, women between the ages of 18 and 49 years with singleton pregnancies who delivered an infant born at 37 weeks of gestation or later were approached. Descriptive, univariate and multivariate analysis were employed in our study using the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) software version 9.1 (SAS Institute Inc. Cary, North Carolina). Our investigation did not find statistically significant associations between SSBs and EGWG. Our study reported no evidence of an association between SSBs and GDM except for sports drinks. However, the estimate of this association was deemed very imprecise. In conclusion, our study did not find strong provide strong support for the hypothesis that high consumption of SSBs increases the risk of EGWG or GDM. ^

A systematic review of methods to assess intake of sugar-sweetened beverages among healthy European adults and children: a DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) study

Research indicates that intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) may be associated with negative health consequences. However, differences between assessment methods can affect the comparability of intake data across studies. The current review aimed to identify methods used to assess SSB intake among children and adults in pan-European studies and to inform the development of the DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) toolbox of methods suitable for use in future European studies. A literature search was conducted using three electronic databases and by hand-searching reference lists. English-language studies of any design which assessed SSB consumption were included in the review. Studies involving two or more European countries were included in the review. Healthy, free-living children and adults. The review identified twenty-three pan-European studies which assessed intake of SSB. The FFQ was the most commonly used (n 24), followed by the 24 h recall (n 6) and diet records (n 1). There were several differences between the identified FFQ, including the definition of SSB used. In total, seven instruments that were tested for validity were selected as potentially suitable to assess SSB intake among adults (n 1), adolescents (n 3) and children (n 3). The current review highlights the need for instruments to use an agreed definition of SSB. Methods that were tested for validity and used in pan-European populations encompassing a range of countries were identified. These methods should be considered for use by future studies focused on evaluating consumption of SSB.

The effect of sugar-free versus sugar-sweetened beverages on satiety, liking and wanting: an 18 month randomized double-blind trial in children

BACKGROUND: Substituting sugar-free for sugar-sweetened beverages reduces weight gain. A possible explanation is that sugar-containing and sugar-free beverages cause the same degree of satiety. However, this has not been tested in long-term trials.

METHODS: We randomized 203 children aged 7-11 years to receive 250 mL per day of an artificially sweetened sugar-free beverage or a similarly looking and tasting sugar-sweetened beverage. We measured satiety on a 5-point scale by questionnaire at 0, 6, 12 and 18 months. We calculated the change in satiety from before intake to 1 minute after intake and 15 minutes after intake. We then calculated the odds ratio that satiety increased by 1 point in the sugar-group versus the sugar-free group. We also investigated how much the children liked and wanted the beverages.

RESULTS: 146 children or 72% completed the study. We found no statistically significant difference in satiety between the sugar-free and sugar-sweetened group; the adjusted odds ratio for a 1 point increase in satiety in the sugar group versus the sugar-free group was 0.77 at 1 minute (95% confidence interval, 0.46 to 1.29), and 1.44 at 15 minutes after intake (95% CI, 0.86 to 2.40). The sugar-group liked and wanted their beverage slightly more than the sugar-free group, adjusted odds ratio 1.63 (95% CI 1.05 to 2.54) and 1.65 (95% CI 1.07 to 2.55), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Sugar-sweetened and sugar-free beverages produced similar satiety. Therefore when children are given sugar-free instead of sugar-containing drinks they might not make up the missing calories from other sources. This may explain our previous observation that children in the sugar-free group accumulated less body fat than those in the sugar group.

The impact of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages according to socio-economic position: a systematic review of the evidence

OBJECTIVE: A tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) has been proposed to address population weight gain but the effect across socio-economic position (SEP) is unclear. The current study aimed to clarify the differential impact(s) of SSB taxes on beverage purchases and consumption, weight outcomes and the amount paid in SSB taxes according to SEP.

DESIGN: Databases (OVID and EMBASE) and grey literature were systematically searched in June 2015 to identify studies that examined effects of an SSB price increase on beverage purchases or consumption, weight outcomes or the amount paid in tax across SEP, within high-income countries.

RESULTS: Of the eleven included articles, three study types were identified: (i) those that examined the association between variation in SSB taxes and SSB consumption and/or body weight (n 3); (ii) price elasticity estimation of SSB demand (n 1); and (iii) modelling of hypothetical SSB taxes by combining price elasticity estimates with population SEP-specific beverage consumption, energy intake or body weight (n 7). Few studies statistically tested differences in outcomes between SEP groups. Nevertheless, of the seven studies that reported on changes in weight outcomes for the total population following an increase in SSB price, all reported either similar reductions in weight across SEP groups or greater reductions for lower compared with higher SEP groups. All studies that examined the average household amount paid in tax (n 5) reported that an SSB tax would be regressive, but with small differences between higher- and lower-income households (0·10-1·0 % and 0·03 %-0·60 % of annual household income paid in SSB tax for low- and high-income households, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS: Based on the available evidence, a tax on SSB will deliver similar population weight benefits across socio-economic strata or greater benefits for lower SEP groups. An SSB tax is shown to be consistently financially regressive, but to a small degree.

Sugar- and artificially sweetened beverages and intrahepatic fat: A randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE To test the hypothesis that substituting artificially sweetened beverages (ASB) for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) decreases intrahepatocellular lipid concentrations (IHCL) in overweight subjects with high SSB consumption. METHODS About 31 healthy subjects with BMI greater than 25 kg/m(2) and a daily consumption of at least 660 ml SSB were randomized to a 12-week intervention in which they replaced SSBs with ASBs. Their IHCL (magnetic resonance spectroscopy), visceral adipose tissue volume (VAT; magnetic resonance imaging), food intake (2-day food records), and fasting blood concentrations of metabolic markers were measured after a 4-week run-in period and after a 12-week period with ASB or control (CTRL). RESULTS About 27 subjects completed the study. IHCL was reduced to 74% of the initial values with ASB (N = 14; P < 0.05) but did not change with CTRL. The decrease in IHCL attained with ASB was more important in subjects with IHCL greater than 60 mmol/l than in subjects with low IHCL. ALT decreased significantly with SSB only in subjects with IHCL greater than 60 mmol/l. There was otherwise no significant effect of ASB on body weight, VAT, or metabolic markers. CONCLUSIONS In subjects with overweight or obesity and a high SSB intake, replacing SSB with ASB decreased intrahepatic fat over a 12-week period.

The 'caffeine-sweetness' effect; potential reduction of energy in caffeinated sugar-sweetened soft drinks

Background – Excessive consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) is a contributing factor in the occurrence of overweight and obesity. The high energy intake, low satiation, high glycemic index, and intense marketing are all thought to contribute to their over consumption. In addition, the role of the mildly-addictive chemical caffeine in SSB has been questioned (Griffiths and Vernotica, 2000, Keast and Riddell, 2007). We have previously shown that low concentrations of caffeine may decrease sweetness of sugars and thereby result in excess energy in SSB formulations (Ebbeling et al., 2006).
Objective – Without noticeably affecting flavour, to determine potential energy reduction when decreasing sucrose concentration from caffeinated and de-caffeinated SSB.
Design – Human psychophysical taste evaluations in water, sucrose and model SSB. Triangle forced-choice ascending method of limits was used to determine caffeine taste threshold in water and sucrose (n= 62). Directional paired comparison tests to determine 1/ the influence of caffeine on sweetness of sucrose (n= 23), and 2/ the nonperceivable difference when decreasing the sucrose and caffeine concentrations in a model SSB (n= 30).
Outcomes – Caffeine, at sub-threshold concentrations in common SSB (0.67mM) can be perceived in sucrose solutions because it significantly inhibits sweetness (p<0.001), the ‘caffeine sweetness effect’. Presumably coremoval of caffeine and sucrose could be achieved without affecting the sweetness of the SSB. Removing caffeine from the model SSB allowed an energy reduction of 137.4 KJ per 500 ml serving (12.6% sucrose reduction) without noticeably affecting flavour for 80% of the population. The energy reduction possible without co-removal of caffeine was a more modest 32 KJ per 500 ml serving (3.5% sucrose reduction).
Conclusion – Sub-threshold concentrations of caffeine suppress sweetness resulting in higher concentrations of sugars in SSB. Excessive consumption of SSB is linked to the obesity epidemic, and we suggest the removal of caffeine and subsequent removal of 137.4 KJ energy will have long term public health benefits.

The acute effects of caffeine in a sugar-sweetened beverage on energy consumption

Background: It has been suggested that those who are habitually high caffeine consumers ingest greater quantities of snack foods both in and outside the laboratory. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major contributor to caffeine consumption and evidence links SSB consumption with poor dietary intake.

Objective: To determine whether varying the concentration of caffeine in SSBs influences snack food consumption and energy intake.

Methods: Caffeine taste thresholds were assessed using the International Standards Organization method for assessing taste sensitivity. In a crossover study design, participants (n=23, 26±5 years old, 58% female) were provided with a standardized meal on 4 days and simultaneously consumed SSBs with varied levels of caffeine (0, 0.67, 1.16, and 1.65 mM). The intake of food and beverage was recorded following each meal session.

Results: A one way between groups analysis of variance revealed no significant main effect of caffeine concentration on consumption of SSBs [F (3, 92)=0.154, p=0.927] or food [F (3, 92)=0.305, p=0.822]. Pearson correlation analysis identified no significant correlations between the amount of food and SSB consumed (R=−0.031–0.415, p=0.062–0.893), or the amount of food and SSB consumed with body mass index and waist circumference (R=0.000 to −0.380, p=0.073–0.999). An individual's oral sensitivity to caffeine was not associated with SSB consumption (R=0.045 to −0.309, p=0.152–0.839) or the consumption of food (R=−0.052 to −0.327, p=0.128–0.812).

Conclusions: The concentration of caffeine in SSBs did not influence the amount of food or SSB consumed.

Dietary sodium intake is associated with total fluid and sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in US children and adolescents aged 2 - 18 y : NHANES 2005 - 2008

Background: Increasing dietary sodium drives the thirst response. Because sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are frequently consumed by children, sodium intake may drive greater consumption of SSBs and contribute to obesity risk.

Objective: We examined the association between dietary sodium, total fluid, and SSB consumption in a nationally representative sample of US children and adolescents aged 2–18 y.

Design: We analyzed cross-sectional data from NHANES 2005–2008. Dietary sodium, fluid, and SSB intakes were assessed with a 24-h dietary recall. Multiple regression analysis was used to assess associations between sodium, fluid, and SSBs adjusted for age, sex, race-ethnic group, body mass index (BMI), socioeconomic status (SES), and energy intake.

Results: Of 6400 participants, 51.3% (n = 3230) were males, and the average (±SEM) age was 10.1 ± 0.1 y. The average sodium intake was 3056 ± 48 mg/d (equivalent to 7.8 ± 0.1 g salt/d). Dietary sodium intake was positively associated with fluid consumption (r = 0.42, P < 0.001). After adjustment for age, sex, race-ethnic group, SES, and BMI, each additional 390 mg Na/d (1 g salt/d) was associated with a 74-g/d greater intake of fluid (P < 0.001). In consumers of SSBs (n = 4443; 64%), each additional 390 mg Na/d (1 g salt/d) was associated with a 32-g/d higher intake of SSBs (P < 0.001) adjusted for age, sex, race-ethnic group, SES, and energy intake.

Conclusions: Dietary sodium is positively associated with fluid consumption and predicted SSB consumption in consumers of SSBs. The high dietary sodium intake of US children and adolescents may contribute to a greater consumption of SSBs identifying a possible link between dietary sodium intake and excess energy intake.

Caffeine increases sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in a free-living population: a randomised controlled trial

Excessive sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption has been associated with overweight and obesity. Caffeine is a common additive to SSB, and through dependence effects, it has the potential to promote the consumption of caffeine-containing foods. The objective of the present study was to assess the influence that caffeine has on the consumption of SSB. Participants (n 99) were blindly assigned to either a caffeinated SSB (C-SSB) or a non-caffeinated SSB (NC-SSB) group. Following randomisation, all participants completed a 9 d flavour-conditioning paradigm. They then completed a 28 d ad libitum intake intervention where they consumed as much or as little of C-SSB or NC-SSB as desired. The amount consumed (ml) was recorded daily, 4 d diet diaries were collected and liking of SSB was assessed at the start and end of the intervention. Participants (n 50) consuming the C-SSB had a daily SSB intake of 419 (sd 298) ml (785 (sd 559) kJ/d) over the 28 d intervention, significantly more than participants (n 49) consuming the NC-SSB (273 (sd 278) ml/d, 512 (sd 521) kJ/d) (P< 0·001). A trained flavour panel (n 30) found no difference in flavour between the C-SSB and NC-SSB (P>0·05). However, participants who consumed the C-SSB liked the SSB more than those who consumed the NC-SSB (6·3 v. 6·0 on a nine-point hedonic scale, P= 0·022). The addition of low concentrations of caffeine to the SSB significantly increases the consumption of the SSB. Regulating caffeine as a food additive may be an effective strategy to decrease the consumption of nutrient-poor high-energy foods and beverages.